In the last week the Government has submitted three bills for their approval in the National Assembly, which they have the numbers to easily pass: a bill that would allow for life imprisonment- currently the longest sentence is 30 years; a bill that would require any Nicaraguan receiving any foreign money – other than family remittances and some formal business contracts – to register as a foreign agent; and a cybercrime bill that would penalize with jail any publication “of false or distorted news”. Critics of the government see them all aimed at threatening the opposition and curtailing their rights before the elections of 2021. What follows is the analysis by a former high level Sandinista and political and economic analyst.
The desperation of the Ortega Murillo regime
By Oscar René Vargas, Sept 29, 2020 in Artículo 66
They are only willing to leave power dead, not through elections. It is the logic of power or death.
The intolerance continues as always and the attack of the Ortega Murillo regime against the opposition is intensifying. The impunity that protects the Police and paramilitaries is the guarantee that the repression will continue. In other words, Nicaragua will continue experiencing a nightmare of political repression and state violence.
The repressive campaign of Ortega Murillo for their continuance in power is carried out within a context of aggression and death, in addition to the police violence. At the same time, the regime counts on the fractioning of the formal opposition, helped by the façade opposition parties, both factors help them in their purpose of staying in power indefinitely.
The social, political and economic crisis will continue in the case that Ortega Murillo continue in power. The consequences are more than predictable. A future will not be seen for the impoverished population nor for economic recovery in the next five years.
The regime is facing the confluence of five crises (economic, social, political, health and international) which is not favorable for their continuance in power, a situation which leads them to implement more repressive laws out of their desperation to control the social movement in order to avoid a second wave of social protests and/or a social and political tsunami.
I think that in the best electoral scenario, Ortega will hold manipulated elections in order to be able to win them and is willing to deal with international sanctions and popular uproar, like Maduro has done since 2018. Meanwhile, he is going to approve laws that further limit the freedom of expression, because for him thinking is dangerous.
This is exactly what he is preparing with the laws that he wants to approve: life sentences as a threat against opponents, cybercrime which censures social networks and foreign agents and other laws that might appear. The regime is digging in for a possible negotiation with the North Americans.
In other words, they want elections, but only with the façade opposition parties and a minimum of electoral reforms, regardless of what might come later. They are willing to leave power only dead, not through elections. It is the logic of power or death.
This does not mean that there is no need to fight for clean and transparent elections in 2021. The regime wants to get to an electoral scenario where the formal opposition is up a creek without a paddle. Nevertheless, the electoral process can be taken advantage of as a stage in the struggle against the dictatorship that we have to exhaust, taking advantage of its international isolation, and the fact that the 2021 elections that will be monitored by the international press. In other words, the electoral process has to be taken advantage of in order to mobilize the population against an electoral fraud that would have a high political cost, internally as well as internationally.
The Ortega Murillo regime is making a poor bet: Nicaragua is not Venezuela, not in terms of resources, military power, and international support on the part of the Russians and Chinese. Also, the regime is mistaken that the real opposition is the National Coalition and that its fracture, they think, allows it to do anything. The real opposition are the people in the streets, in the traffic circles, and in any place in the country that protests against the dictatorship.