This is a revealing analysis of the latest CID GALLUP polling of the Nicaraguan population, which shows, among other things, that support for the Ortega regime has dropped to now only 15% of the population.
What does the most recenty CID Gallup survey say?
August 17, 2022 by Enrique Sáenz
In the current conditions of oppression and threats in Nicaragua, it is extremely risky to do surveys, not just from a technical-methodological point of view, but also from the point of view of the physical security of surveyors and those being surveyed. Therefore, the first thing to do is to propose caution about the possible results of surveys that are done in the country.
It is helpful to accept two points: one, the synchronization that much of the data of the survey shows with the statistics that are recorded in the databases of official institutions. Two, that in the case of the CID GALLUP surveys it is possible to follow tendencies, given that they do their studies every four months. This circumstance mitigates surprises in the results. As known, opinion surveys are like a photograph given that they usually reflect the prevailing perceptions in a certain moment. The analysis of tendencies, in contrast, allows us to get closer to a movie than a photograph.
The Sandinista Front in the cellar, but others as well
With the precautions noted, we begin with the first data: What is the level of support that the Sandinista Front has from Nicaraguans? According to the report, barely 15% of the population surveyed expressed support for the Sandinista Front. This figure repeats what is reported by other independent surveyors. In confirmation, in an additional question, 14% said that they would prefer an authoritarian regime, in other words, a similar percentage is happy with the dictatorship.
But that is not all. Of the 85% who do not support the regime, only 13% support opposing organizations. In other words, 72% of Nicaraguans want a change, but the existing organizations do not win their trust. And this has to be added; the organizations that emerged after April 2018 together do not add up to 0.5%. And it is not valid to point out that they did not express it out of fear, because in other more compromising questions they did express themselves clearly.
A crucial challenge is deducted from this: without an organization or alliance of organizations, or leaders who might awaken the trust and backing of this immense majority of Nicaraguans, the dictatorship will have the conditions to prolong its death rattle. A cruel expectation.
What are the causes of the unease of the population according to CID GALLUP?
The second thing that this CID GALLUP survey responds to is why this 85% aspire to change. And it begins with the situation in homes: to the question about how the situation of the family of the interviewee is now compared to last year, 62% responded that it was worse. This percentage has been growing with each survey.
In the face of the future what prevails is pessimism: to the question about how the interviewee visualizes how his family will be in the next 12 months, most responded that they would be worse off, and like in the previous cases the percentage of pessimists has been growing. It went up 15 percentage points compared to September 2021.
It is not difficult to deduce the reasons for this mood: the lack of employment and the high cost of living are the principal burdens. For 82% the cost of living has increased, and of that percentage, 58% thought that “it had gone up a lot.” In terms of employment, 35% said to CID GALLUP that the head of household or at least one member of the family does not have work. It is evident that the official propaganda is no longer enough to placate these concerns, which in addition indicate full agreement with official statistics on employment and the cost of the basic basket of goods.
Similar questions were asked about the country and the responses were also similar: 65% responded that the situation of the country was worse now than a year ago. About expectations for the future, most responded in the same way: that the situation was going to get worse: This last figure increased by 19 percentage points in comparison with September 2021.
What responsibility does the population attribute to Ortega for this situation?
The response can be taken from the following figure: nearly 70% of those interviewed responded that Ortega does not have the probability of resolving these problems: neither for families nor for the country. Confirming the percentage of support that the official party has, 15% in contrast estimated that it was highly probably that Ortega would resolve these problems. In addition, a majority percentage felt that Ortega is not concerned with the problems of the people. These responses are noteworthy because they were expressed despite the environment of fear that prevails in the country.
Left or right?
There is new data concerning the left and right alignments. A good part of the social networks are chock full of attacks and supposedly ideological fighting. Nevertheless, when those surveyed are asked what on ideological-political location they place themselves, just 10% self describe as on the right, and the same percentage, 10%, self describe as on the left. 13% located themselves taken together as center, center left and center right. The rest, the great majority, think that this differentiation is not relevant in the current circumstances: two of every three. It can be deduced that at least there is a wide swath of tolerance (80%) of the left-right contradictions.
This data is key to synchronize the political discourse of the democratic opposition, because, it has to be repeated: not all the opponents of Ortega really aspire for democracy. And contaminating the discourse with confrontational extremes is not in sync with the opinion of the immense majority.
Three significant data points
One of the central axes of the official propaganda has been projecting the image that Nicaragua is one of the safest countries of Latin America. The question about this point was direct: Whether in the home of the interviewee some relative has been a victim of some crime in the last 4 months. 45% responded affirmatively! If this hard data is confirmed, Nicaragua would be one of the most insecure countries in the region. Given that it is a matter of a hair-raising figure prudence advises to see how it is reflected in the next survey.
Another significant figure, shared by CID GALLUP is that one of every 4 interviewees (24%) identified corruption in the government as the principal problem of the country. This figure shows the existence of a wide area, up to now not taken advantage of, about one of the weakest flanks of the dictatorship.
Finally, in terms of the anti-imperialist rants that Ortega repeats over and over, only 5% expressed support for these positions. The remaining 95% is divided between those who said that it was not helpful to have confrontations with any country, those who said that harmonious relationships should be promoted, to those who openly felt that Nicaragua should be an ally of the United States.
In other words, not even the followers of Ortega themselves support the confrontational speeches of the dictator.
Who are those who most oppose the regime?
Even though in all sectors most of those surveyed are opposed to the regime, in a noteworthy way the following segments of the population show the most pronounced percentages: women, Catholics, those with lower educational backgrounds (by deduction, the poorest) and the population between 25 and 40 years of age. Particularly noteworthy is the coherence and forcefulness of the opinions of this swath of ages, which makes them a decisive sector in the fight against the dictatorship. It is also revealing that the propaganda of the dictatorship no longer fools the poorest sectors of the population.
In conclusion, the credibility and support for the regime are in the cellar. The political, social, international, and economic crisis that the regime faces continue undermining its bases of support and expanding the discontent and rejection. As was said in other times: the objective conditions are there. If this is true…How to take advantage of the opportunity?