This is the blog post of recently jailed Óscar René Vargas where he introduces the concept of “endogenous implosion” as an explanation of how the regime will eventually fall due to internal conflicts which are becoming more visible day after day.
Nicaragua: What is an endogenous implosion and how will it happen?
By Oscar René Vargas September 16, 2022
The incendiary state of the country invites us to explore the past, understand the present and with luck, glimpse the future.
A real concrete fact is that the strategy of an electoral “soft landing” could be established among the elite power-that-be as the solution to the social and political crisis; we think that the real alternative strategy is that the fall of the dictatorship is going to be produced by an endogenous implosion more than anything promoted from the outside. An endogenous implosion is the product of the tensions within its own social bases because of the general deterioration of the country, more than because of the type of international sanctions that may happen; it is evident that sanctions support the development of the internal implosion of the dictatorship, but sanctions do not topple governments.
What is an endogenous implosion?
An endogenous implosion will be possible because of the incapacity of the dictatorship to generate technological progress, the incapacity for innovation, generation of distributive wealth or greater competitiveness of Nicaraguan products. There are other factors that favor an endogenous implosion, like corruption that has repercussions in the psyches of all citizens because of the levels it has reached, as well as the torture, forced disappearance of people and crimes committed in the administration of justice by judges and magistrates. Obviously, the actions of the opposition also will have a lot to do over whether a strategy is established to undermine, erode, weaken, fracture the pillars that sustain the dictatorship.
In other words, endogenous implosion will be the product of a concatenation of factors of different and interdependent causes that explain the process of the developing internal implosion. The implosion will be the product of a process of degradation that has been sapping, little by little, the pillars that support the dictatorship: army, police, big business, the judicial branch, central and municipal state officials and their social base who commit abuses to the detriment of the citizens.
Many followers, mid-level functionaries, the social base of Ortega feel disoriented by the increase of the police repression against priests and bishops. Interiorly torn, some submit. Others, desperate and disoriented, they silently abandon Ortega, they prefer to migrate. The beliefs and ideals of historic Sandinism which were claimed in the revolution of 1979 are contradicted by the concrete events that accelerate the endogenous implosion in its social bases.
Oligarchs, high-level military, police commissioners, political accomplices, Ortega grassroots militants, each one plays their role. The dominant class has ceded political power to Ortega, because with him they have found an identification in common businesses. Big business voluntarily has made themselves functional to Ortega´s strategy which has two principal objectives: internally ensure absolute political power and use it as a key peon in terms of the international scenario.
The consensus model
The consensus economic model, agreed upon by business and political elites, could be summarized as: primarization, denationalization, and concentration. In other words, promoting the agro-export model with the epicenter in African palm, sugar cane and peanuts, it maintains the exporting matrix. Denationalization was developed through the territorial concessions to foreign enterprises for the exploitation of gold and silver mines. All of this facilitates the process of the concentration of wealth which has increased in recent years.
The Ortega-Murillo dictatorship is against everyone, they tested the leadership of the Catholic Church, repressing Bishop Álvarez, and the Episcopal Conference of Nicaragua (CEN) did not react; they jailed ten priests and the CEN still did not protest; they closed the Catholic radios and the CEN continued in silence. Nevertheless, the repression against the Catholic Church did have repercussions among the Catholic faithful, which feeds the development of the endogenous implosion of the regime.
The dictatorship is in place, but it finds itself politically and socially fragmented, the most dispossessed sectors, mid-level and mid to high level sectors have broken with Ortega. Opinion surveys show that the crisis of the April 2018 uprising has not been overcome, and the dictatorship cannot make the necessary changes without putting at risk their permanence in power. In the short and medium term, this means that the endogenous implosion continues to develop. No matter what the current crisis may be, the vital signs of the dictatorship are battered as the most recent opinion surveys show.
Ortega moved from being a leader of the revolution in 1979 to constituting in the minds of Nicaraguans as the person who ruined the country on the basis of not recognizing all human rights and allowing the corruption of the members of all the different power circles. Now, corruption is not just above, corruption is also below, in the Ortega social base. Elements that contribute to the endogenous implosion.
It is important to understand that the endogenous implosion is a gradual process that has to be fed on a daily basis, in other words, that it can be accelerated by an event, be it political, economic or of another nature, equivalent to a “black swan event” that eats away at the pillars of the dictatorship. Ortega´s weakness is that he continues to think that maintaining the repression ensures the immobility of the citizenry by keeping the head of the opposition under water, but this people is much more complex and diverse and cannot always be subdued through repressive methods.
The big political game
When the uprising happened in April 2018 many members of the powers-that-be said “we did not see it coming”. It would be a mistake now to move to “nothing is happening here”, to not realize that there is a process developing of an endogenous implosion. Nevertheless, everything seems to indicate that the powers-that-be of the elites are not aware of the current social, political and economic conditions that would allow them to foresee a “black swan event” (unexpected), which would allow for the fall of the dictatorship. It would be a mistake to interpret the 72% of the population, according to the latest CID-Gallup survey, that does not feel represented in the different tendencies of the opposition, as support for the dictatorship.
The repressive strategy of the dictatorship of “we are going all out” has the objective of forcing a negotiation with the external (USA) and internal powers-that-be (Catholic Church + big business), with the plan of obtaining the guarantee that they can remain in power until 2026; in other words, that the internal and external powers-that-be would accept the current “status quo” which would allow him to build a dynastic dictatorship. The most outrageous of the bad things of evil people is the complicit silence and/or acceptance of good or innocent people.
Nicaragua has spent many years fragmented (2018-22) and has a lot of unresolved problems: migration, drug trafficking, citizen safety, unemployment, poverty, corruption, nepotism, human rights, food insecurity, etc. It is too early to know whether we are in a situation similar to that of 2018 or not. One can say that the political picture now is different, but it is important to pay attention to the increase in the internal decomposition of the regime, and it is important to not tempt fate.
In other words, we are in the face of a “big political game”. The powers-that-be accept the permanence of Ortega in power until 2026 and quit applying sanctions or lessen the current ones; in exchange, Ortega decreases the levels of repression, frees political prisoners, allows the return of exiles and accepts a certain amount of freedom of movement and expression.
You have to carefully watch what is being cooked up under the table, in the dark. Because what is in play is whether the permanence of the dictatorship is compatible without human rights, allowing a certain amount of stability in order to recover levels of growth in the economy, whether what is being “cooked up” is a new “pact from above.” The challenge is organizing the great majority of the citizens who reject the dictatorship and creating a counter power to undercut the pillars of the dictatorship which might facilitate its endogenous implosion.
How is an endogenous implosion produced?
In recent years we have become familiar with the fascist tics of the dictatorship. The jailings that go from a young man who committed the serious crime of “waving the flag” of Nicaragua to a young woman who was arrested for “breaking the peace” after participating in a conference in a hotel. The Ortega strategy always has been to silence the voices in the media as well as protests in the streets. The dictatorship with deeds show us in a daily manner its fascist, repressive, authoritarian and flagrantly antidemocratic character. Let them no longer sing nor dance on the tomb of our liberty.
INIDE indicates that the cost of the basic basket of goods at the end of the month of August reached the amount of C$18,000.54 córdobas, which means that formal workers, mid-level functionaries of the central State and municipal governments, those who get a pension from Social Security and workers are living in “labor poverty.” In other words, they do not have the capacity to buy a basic basket of goods and live in a process of impoverishment and social discontent which is reflected in the 85% of the population who say that the country is on the wrong path. This is another factor which is facilitating the process of the endogenous implosion of the dictatorship.
What we are experiencing in these months are manifestation of the development of some factors of the process of the endogenous implosion of the dictatorship. To accelerate its internal implosion the strategy of the opposition should be the formation of a broad coalition that, without a doubt, would catch the dictatorship on the wrong foot, which already finds itself with a lot of problems.