A coalition of independent Nicaraguan media have come together to produce a series of reports called “Stolen Dreams: the decadence of the tyranny of Nicaragua”. The participating media include Despacho 505, Expediente Público, Divergentes, Ocote, Desinformémonos, Público. What follows is a translation of the first in the series which looks at the state of the Nicaraguan opposition.
The Nicaraguan opposition faces the challenge of forging unity
By DIVERGENTES, March 15, 2023
The repression has been able to dismantle the opposition in Nicaragua through imprisonment and banishment. Nevertheless, the opposition has not been able to unite in one block. Diplomatic sources count some 60 different groups who have gone to Washington to lobby in the name of the Nicaraguan opposition. In the search for unity, meetings are happening in Costa Rica and in the US between parties and organizations that clashed with one another two years ago.
This past February 9, when 222 political prisoners were banished to Virginia, USA, an image was created which attracted attention: exiled dissidents hugging those banished in the Westin Hotel, where the US government lodged most of those expelled for the first few days. The curious element was not because of the gestures of affection for those recently released – which were seen through transmissions through social media – but because of the coincidence that there was a broad and diverse committee of political actors in the same place as those who were forced into exile.
One of the hypotheses which was publicly debated was that the dissidents who were in Washington knew beforehand about the operation which freed and exiled the 222 political prisoners. Nevertheless, sources consulted for this report denied this version and explained that the coincidence occurred because those dissidents were participating in a meeting in the US capital as part of the efforts to achieve the union of the opposition.
“They say that there are no coincidences in politics, but in this case, it was by chance that several actors of the opposition were in Washington precisely the day of the banishment of the political prisoners,” said Douglas Castro, a member of the Nicaraguan University Alliance (AUN) and the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy, two organizations that emerged with the rebellion of April 2018.
Sources consulted state that the dissidents who were in Washington that day were part of a group called the Monteverde Group, which brings together members of the Blue and White National Unity (UNAB), the Civic Alliance, Citizen for Freedom (CxL), UNAMOS (previously the Sandinista Renovation Movement), the Peasant Movement, among other organizations. That day in the Westin Hotel were Ana Quirós, from UNAB, Daisy George West from the Civic Alliance, Kitty Monterrey from CxL, Luís Carrión from UNAMOS and Francisca Ramírez, peasant leaders, among other political actors.
Douglas Castro, a member of the Civic Alliance, confirmed the conversations among opposition forces who were not capable of participating in a united way in the presidential elections of 2021. “We have not stopped conversations with UNAB. In Costa Rica we have talked with them, also with the leadership of the CxL party,” said Castro.
Since the uprising of April 2018, the Nicaraguan opposition has not been able to unite to create a counterpower to Ortega and Murillo. The Episcopal Conference of Nicaragua (CEN) convoked different opposition leaders who formed the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy to participate in the two national dialogues, which were carried out between 2018 and 2019 with the presidential couple. But since the failure of the negotiations that alliance has weakened.
Later the Blue and White National Unity emerged, a broader organization that, in the beginning, included the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy. A few months later both organizations went their separate ways and later the National Coalition appeared, which also was affected by internal differences.
Finally, prior to the 2021 elections, the political actors were not able to register together in the same CxL ballot space, the last political party to be inhibited from participating in the elections that Ortega and Murillo awarded themselves without competition, and whose result was not recognized by the international community, led by the United States.
Douglas Castro said that many people believe that there are no conversations, because before the 2021 elections “there was a lot of friction and the opposition actors did a lot of damage to one another (…) But this was rapidly overcome because that was a moment, then joint work began to be done on issues like the liberation of the political prisoners, diplomatic advocacy to apply more pressure on Nicaragua, but also to try to open a path for the peaceful and civic solution to the crisis.”
The scenario, nevertheless, is more complex. With the failure of the opposition parties since the 2018 crisis, and the lack of unity in the opposition, other opposition organizations in exile have emerged, principally in Costa Rica and the United States. Diplomatic sources calculate that currently there are between 60 to 70 opposition groups who have wanted to lobby in Washington in representation of the Nicaraguan opposition.
Among the more recent groups who are identified in this report are the Space for Dialogue for the Nicaraguan Concertation, Spokesperson in Unity, Platform for Democratic Unity, Congress of the Unity of Free Nicaraguans, among other organizations.
A sociologist and political analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that in reality these group are “meeting spaces for the analysis and definition of possible actions.” The analyst clarified that none of these organizations are political actors yet, even though they are composed of political actors, but “something is going to emerge from this”, noted the sociologist.
In the CID Gallup surveys the percentage of followers of the opposition organizations is even smaller than that of the Sandinista Front, the party of Ortega and Murillo. The most recent study of this Costa Rica firm shows that among all political parties and opposition organizations, like the Civic Alliance and the National Unity, together they barely reach 8%, while the FSLN has 22%. Those who declared themselves without any tendency represented 70%.
It is worth clarifying that specialists consulted indicated that it is possible that this survey could not be clearly expressing the opinions of those interviewed, due to the fear of reprisals, in a country whose government persecutes, jails, banishes and strips the nationality of any citizen who opposes it.
Haydée Castillo, a member of the Space for Dialogue for the National Concertation, said that the role of the opposition should be turned into that political option for most of the people who say that they do not have preferences for any political party. “To provide the last push to overthrow the dictatorship, this cannot be done with this bunch of disperse energies and leaders,” said Castillo. “A consensus has to be reached on a political program, a leader who responds to that political program, and gets close to the people of Nicaragua to provide hope and recover their trust, and the trust of the international community,” she added.
The obstacles to Unity
The explanations about why the opposition has not united are complex and diverse. The sociologist consulted said that the degree of repression that the dissidents have suffered, and the jailing of the national and territorial leaders; in the last year and a half, “has made the quick restructuring of the opposition difficult.”
The dissidents continue being the target of repression, even in exile. Since February 9th 317 critics of the regime were stripped of their nationality, had their assets confiscated and were declared fugitives from justice. “The logic of Ortega is to keep us occupied, resolving these personal and family problems so as to not be focused on politics,” said Douglas Castro from the Civic Alliance.
Up to now, the Nicaraguan opposition has worked on denouncements and the documentation of human rights violations; campaigns for the liberation of the political prisoners and humanitarian support for the prisoners and their relatives; international advocacy, among other actions of dialogue among the opposition groups. “For me, what is being done from the opposition is limited in comparison with the magnitude of the problem that we have in Nicaragua,” said Castro.
The former contra Luis Fley, from the Nicaraguan Democratic Front (FDN), said that they are forming a new block with eight organizations which have a presence inside of Nicaragua: members of the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and the Liberal Independent Party (PLI) in exile, the Reflection Group of Former Political Prisoners (GREX), the Nicaraguan Medical Association (AMEN) and part of the Peasant Movement. “Our sphere of operations is within Nicaragua, to coordinate work in a clandestine way,” said Fley.
The veteran politician thinks that the opposition is divided into two: that which is in Nicaragua and that which is in exile: “the internal opposition is silenced by the repression of the dictatorship, and that part which is in exile is trying to come together, but it has been difficult to do because the particular interests of these groups has prevailed, and not the higher interest of rescuing democracy in Nicaragua,” said Fley.
Political projects
Even though all the opposition groups have the objective of removing the Ortega-Murillo couple, not all are in agreement with the strategy that should be used. In the political panorama there are those who suggest that the way out of the crisis should be violent, like what happened with the dictatorship of the Somozas in 1979.
Other opposition leaders advocate for pressure through multilateralism: international sanctions, cutting the flow of financing and international isolation. On the other hand, there are some groups who think that the way out of the crisis should be through a negotiation process that would allow, little by little, to achieve the democratic transition.
One part of the opposition declares itself openly conservative: anti-abortion and rejects feminist and LGTBI movements and community. During the talks to achieve the opposition unity, in 2021 the presidential hopeful Félix Maradiaga said that these topics were one of the reasons why unity was not achieved. “The National Coalition and particularly the PRD were accused of bringing together LGBTI groups and feminist movements, which is not entirely true,” said Maradiaga, who belonged to the National Coalition, an opposition group that included feminist and sexual diversity movements in Nicaragua, but who were not the majority in that organization.
A sociologist explained that these movements demand so-called “cultural progressiveness”, a current directed at the defense of sexual and reproductive rights, feminism and ecology. Nevertheless, few are the politicians who raise the banner of “old progressivism”, whose center is social justice and the redistribution of wealth, with the same insistence.
There are no valid interlocutors
The problem of the fact that there is no united opposition in Nicaragua is explained by physics, says the sociologist connected to opposition organizations. “If there are different disperse forces, the forces are diluted, while if all the energy is channeled to one single point, it achieves a greater impact,” he explained.
Diplomatic sources think that the problem of the dispersion of the opposition forces is because there is no trustworthy interlocutor who might bear the message to the different international organizations and countries interested in resolving the crisis in Nicaragua, like the European Union, the United States and the Organization of American States (OAS). “Every week the OAS receives different opposition groups with proposals, but they tell them, `you have to unite,´ this is the recommendation that they always make, but it is not accomplished,” entrusted the diplomat.
Haydée Castillo, sociologist and human rights defender, confirms that the international community questions this dispersion of proposals from different opposition groups. “A proposal has to be presented for the people to judge it and in addition, so that international community might see that we Nicaraguan political actors have the initiative, and we do not depend on their time (that of international actors),” said Castillo.
Oxygen for the stifled opposition
Max Jerez is one of the 222 banished people. During the time that he was in prison he experienced one of the hardest moments of his life. Max is 29 years old and is a student leader, member of the AUN and the Civic Alliance. He was captured on July 5, 2021 during a raid against some 50 leaders who tried to challenge the Ortega-Murillo regime in the presidential elections of 2021.
Like almost all the prisoners who were in the El Chipote jail for more than a year, Max slept on concrete bunks, with the heat of the day and the cold of the night, and the clouds of mosquitos blasting him. None of these sufferings was comparable to what he felt when they told him that his mother had died. Max at that moment was in a punishment block and received the news a month after it happened.
Later he returned to his cell, which he shared with another political prisoner, Róger Reyes, a member of UNAB. “I am grateful to my cell mate, because he was the only person who was with me and was able to support me at that time,” said Max, with his voice breaking.
Similar to this case was the situation of Víctor Hugo Tinoco, of UNAMOS, with Pedro Joaquín Chamorro Barrios, from CxL who shared the same ENSURE milk while they were prisoners in El Chipote, before they were sent to their homes for health reasons. The political differences between them go back to the war of the 80s, when both were outstanding figures of the conflicting groups: Tinoco as former Vice Chancellor of the Sandinista regime and Chamorro as a member of the directorate of the Contra. Jail for all seems to have forced the coming together of ideological positions that, throughout time, have been difficult to conciliate.
The guerrilla commander Dora María Téllez, who also was banished some weeks ago, said that Daniel Ortega “taught us something very important in jail, and that is that we have more important things in common than our differences.” Téllez believes that Ortega jailed them because he saw them as equals. “Yes, we are equal in the aspiration of the struggle for democracy, even though we may be different in a lot of other things,” the former guerrilla added.
For this reason, Douglas Castro believes that jail shaped human relationships that are going to have an impact on the political aspect. “It is fresh air for an opposition that was being suffocated.” For now, the coming together among politicians has been easier and there is greater empathy in conversations. “But this has to be worked on in order to be able to capitalize it and obtain its fruits,” said Castro.