Where are Russia and China? The abandonment of Madura foreshadows risks for Ortega and Murillo
By José Cardoza in La Prensa, Dec 12, 2025
A global security specialist warns that Russia, China and Iran have opted for partial abandonment of the Venezuelan dictator, prioritizing their own strategic interests and avoiding confronting the United States.
The strategic alliances of the dictatorships of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela with regimes like Russia, China and Iran have clear limits in a context of growing pressure from the United States on the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro, who they accuse of being a drug trafficker and leader of the so-called Cartel of the Soles.
In contrast with the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, who came out in defense of their ideological and old social and economic ally, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not communicate with Maduro until December 11 to express his solidarity. But they were only words and he did not promise him military aid in the biggest crisis of the Venezuelan, grasping on to power, in spite of the enormous military deployment of the United States in the Caribbean and the recent seizure of an oil tanker.
The Colombian global security specialist, Carlos Augusto Chacón, says that the partial abandonment of Maduro on the part of Russia, China and Iran can function as a warning for the Ortega Murillo regime, especially in the context of the new security strategy of the President of the United States, the so-called “Trump corollary”, which reaffirmed that he will not tolerate threats in the western hemisphere.
“In the end no periphery dictatorship (like that of Nicaragua) is indispensable for revisionist powers like China, Russia and Iran. On the other hand, when the US toughens actions of regional military presence, the cost of sustaining satellite dictatorships in Latin America increases, and in the current situation these countries have to choose where to concentrate their efforts, whether in their own neighborhoods or in our region,” said Chacón.
The Trump Corollary will cause more tensions
While Ortega and Murillo deepen their political, military and economic alliances with China, Russia and Iran, the 2025 National Security Strategy of the United States proposes a change toward a foreign policy aimed at containing the advance of these powers in the continent. According to specialists, this could increase the pressure and the isolationism on the Nicaraguan regime.
Even though Nicaragua does not appear to be explicitly mentioned, the document defines Latin America as a priority to stop the geopolitical expansion of external actors, principally China, Russia and Iran. The strategy reactivates the logic of the Monroe Doctrine, through the so-called Trump Corollary, a reinterpretation which seeks to reaffirm the strategic control of Washington in the hemisphere.
The logic of the allies of Maduro
Russia, China and Iran, for their part, value more their commercial and strategic interests than the forceful defense of their dictatorial allies in Latin America. That is why they have opted to remain silent. Chacón explains that the partial abandonment responds to three factors: the increasing diplomatic costs, particularly over possible sanctions; the strategic priorities in other scenarios – Ukraine, the Mid East and Asia Pacific – and the lack of real confidence in Maduro to remain in power.
“The three regimes continue seeing Venezuela as a useful chip against the United States, but they no longer operate with the logic of ideological solidarity, but with a cost-benefit calculus, particularly in respect to their own theatres of operations: Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan,” pointed out Chacón.
Russia maintains political support and military-technical assistance, it signed a strategic association treaty in 2025 with Venezuela and continues with oil deals, which is why it is not a matter of complete abandonment. China also has not broken with Maduro, but for some years now has reduced their massive loans and high-risk projects, concentrating on recovering debt, ensuring cheap oil, and avoiding exposition to secondary sanctions.
Iran continues cooperating with Caracas in fuel, refineries, technology, training and networks for avoiding sanctions. Nevertheless, their material capacity is limited and acts in the shadows to not exacerbaate their tensions with the west.
“Dictatorships do not help one another because of shared values, but out of pragmatism and geopolitical calculus. When the cost of supporting them surpasses their utility, they redefine their priorities and support,” said Chacón.
In Nicaragua, Ortega reestablished diplomatic relations with China in 2021 and strengthened ties with Putin to avoid being accountable for human rights abuses committed since 2018, after the international condemnation of the radicalization of the dictatorship. Russia has been a military ally which has channeled their support with the creation of a Police training school, which has had an impact on the formation of officers for the repression, according to US specialists. The political dialogue with the Russians is mediated by Laureano Ortega, the family emissary.
Can they trust them?
Chacón pointed out that autocracies do not offer lasting guarantees nor unbreakable alliances. Russia provides support as long as Venezuela serves them as a platform to the Unites States and to project power in Europe and NATO.
China- the most pragmatic actor- prioritizes internal stability, economic return, and access to resources. Their diplomacy, based on disinformation and narratives favorable to democracies and human rights, contradicts their support for dictatorships. For the specialist, if Beijing must choose between their global economy and a sanctioned ally, they will opt for the first option.
Iran maintains their support for networks of evasion and aid linked to the doctrine of asymmetrical war of Venezuela, like the production of drones. Chacón recalls that during the attacks of Israel and the United States on Iran in 2025, none of their allies – Russia or China – make material efforts to support them.
“The same could happen with Venezuela, as much as it is possible for them to continue taking advantage they will, but they are not going to expose themselves to a conflict with the United States over defending Madura,” he said.
The Ortega Murillos defend Maduro
In contrast to the silence of the allied powers of Latin American regimes, the government of Ortega and Murillo continue as one of the most active defenders of the Venezuelan regime and demand the end of the pressure from the United States.
“The Government of the United States is mistaken threatening Brother Peoples, the Venezuelan Brother People, to whom we express our Solidarity, our Respect, our Love, to President Nicolás Maduro”, said Ortega on Tuesday during the Act of the XXX Graduation of Army Cadets.
Chacón thinks that the Nicaraguan regime needs to appeal to an “authoritarian solidarity” to maintain their survival and depend on an anti-United States narrative to unite their internal base and justify the repression.
The specialist warns that Ortega and Murillo are aware that if Maduro and the Cuban dictatorship fall, Nicaragua would be left without regional allies, a scenario exacerbated by the political turn in Latin America, where center-right and right wing government predominate.
“The regime in Nicaragua does not have another alternative, because they know that what happens with Venezuela could constitute an existential threat to their remaining in power,” pointed out the specialist, referring to Ortega and Murillo, who have been in power since 2007.
