Dancing to “the commandante is staying”[1]?
by Alfonso Malespín, in Divergentes July 28, 2026
There are phrases that define eras and regimes.
“We are going all out” is a turning point in the convulsive history of the country. Ordered by an enraged Rosario Murillo to Fidel Moreno in April of 2018, was translated into government hordes wiping out at bullet point the protests of pensioners and students who were demanding that the unconsulted and unilateral reform of social security be reversed.
“There will be no elections held here again” is another turning point in the history of the Ortega Murillo regime. The announcement with which the strong man of the Sandinistas said that he will prevent the opposition from aspiring to take over the government, come to power, has left the continent shocked. The number of countries and regional and international institutions that have rejected the statement of Ortega has increased every day since July 20th.
Simultaneously analysts continue discussing why Ortega crossed a new red line, knowing that since 2008 he already was the owner of the electoral body and the electoral processes of the country, and had eradicated from the country parties and opposition candidates.
There is a hypothesis that, even though it is not discussed more widely, is related to something said by his deceased brother Humberto Ortega: that Daniel Ortega does not have a successor in his family. The deceased retired general did not see Rosario at the level to be able to be that. And much less anyone of her numerous sons and daughters!
Tied to this hypothesis is the memory of the last two electoral farses organized by Ortega that resulted in Murillo as vice president in 2016 and 2021. In both cases the levels of abstentionism were 70% and 80%, according to reports from observation organizations exiled by the regime of Managua.
The immense majority of the electorate stayed home. This forced Lumberto Campbell and later Brenda Rocha to inflate the numbers, even though the images from neighbors and communications media showed photos and videos of hours and hours of empty voting centers. The worst was that some followers of Ortega, wanting to highlight the order and efficiency of the electoral branch, committed the mistake of publicly saying that it took them more time to get there than to vote, because the voting tables were deserted.
But you have to go farther back behind those two electoral processes to 2006, when Ortega beat Eduardo Montealegre with 38% of the votes, and with 8% of votes whose results were never known. Since then, the opposition baptized Ortega as the ” commandante of the 38%.”
In the elections that he lost to Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, Arnoldo Alemán and Enrique Bolaños, the pool of votes for Ortega got smaller and smaller, but not as feeble as in 2006. The gap between him, defeated in second place, grew like the gap between the wealthy of the regime and the working class of Nicaragua.
In 2011, according to the electoral authority, Ortega got 76% of the votes while the opposition alleged fraud and the electoral observation groups indicated that it was a process unable to be audited.
With this Ortega assigned himself the power of reforming laws that he wanted without having to negotiate with the parties represented in the legislative branch. And that he did. And he has continued to do so up to today, when on July 19, 2026 he ordered Gustavo Porras to find the legal formula to fulfill what he said: here there will be no elections again (in which the opposition can participate and win).
The Rosario factor
Is it that Ortega does not want to face the possibility that now the abstentionism would reach or surpass 90%? Is it that Rosario, as vain as she is, has prohibited him from submitting to a third electoral humiliation? She would like to be blessed by the popular vote.
It is not that the opposition is going to cast a shadow on her, given that they have been proscribed and banished. It is because Rosario understands that the majority of the people are not where she is. If she has gotten to the Vice Presidency in 2016 and then to the Co-Presidency in 2025 (without an election involved), it is because she is “the commandante´s wife”, as I heard a distant relative say who is very loyal to them.
In the bases of what is left of the FSLN there are two sayings. The first is that they are sticking with Daniel to the death. Those people never criticize the commandante. That would be like touching God with dirty hands! But they do not say the same when the name of Rosario is mentioned. She is a different kettle of fish. The nearly doglike loyalty of that ever more demanding base does not embrace her.
But it is not enough that Ortega remain on the ballot. It is that the people are now weary of the two for some time now, after so many atrocities. They know well that wielding power takes a toll. And support for both is pretty eroded after two decades destroying all the institutions that existed.
They also know that if they leave power, they could end up cornered. The worst is that that perspective is not a shade that only covers them, but also their numerous offspring enriched in ways that they would have to explain publicly.
How will they reverse (without fraud) this state of opinion, if since 2011 the majority do not go to their electoral district? How are they going to convince them to do so now, after so much tempestuous waters have battered the lives of so many families?
Imagine an election in 2027 in which people prefer to stay home or going anywhere else to not have to go to vote (where everything is previously arranged), to deposit a ballot in which they can only vote for Ortega and his wife.
She would shout at him, “now you have exposed us!”
They do not want to take that risk.
So it is possible that with the reform of laws they would oblige people to go to the polls under the threat of punishment. One possible reform of the Electoral Law would be turning the right to vote into an obligation, as in other countries. Peru for example.
It is also possible that, now that they have taken off the last mask, they order that everyone dance to “the commandante is staying”, to later say that they were popularly acclaimed from top to bottom.
[1] refers to the phrase Sandinista supporters sang while dancing in support of government repression against the opposition.
