In the context of the newly approved laws on the regulation of foreign agents and cybercrimes, the recent withdrawal of the Civic Alliance from the National Coalition, and departures of founding members of the Civic Alliance, this article provides some other important elements for interpreting the current situation in Nicaragua.
Dancing with the “blue and white” trolls of Ortega
By Ramón Meneses
Published in online Magazine 4to Mono, Oct 12, 2020
Just like what has happened in other countries, Ortega has implanted a political narrative or discourse in the social networks to divide and prevent the consolidation of a group capable of overthrowing him and the consolidation of new leaders.
Regardless of whether we believe or not that the Russians interfered in the 2016 US elections, or whether Cambridge Analytica was key to Trump´s victory; what is true is that it was created to apply military information operations to the political sphere. Principally to manage content in the social media.
Little by little the Ortega Murillo regime has been applying this methodology, to promote the division of the blue and white opposition sector on digital platforms. With the purpose of discrediting groups considered to be the true opposition; while they continue carrying out their plan to remain in power.
The imbedding of political narrative or discourse in the social networks to divide the political adversary is used in different countries to impact electoral processes. It captured world-wide attention when it was applied in the electoral contest of Donald Trump versus Hilary Clinton, and in the decision about Brexit in Great Britain. This led to the disappearance of Cambridge Analytica; opened an FBI investigation on Russian interference in the US elections; and produced robust questioning of the damage that Facebook and other social networks do to democracy.
With or without Russian or Cuban support, a plan is perceived in the social networks of Nicaragua, a design, a methodology in the digital strategy of the Ortega Murillo dictatorship. Aimed at playing with the fears, sentiments and political diversity of the blue and white majority. To try to influence their disposition to fight in a unified way, grow the resistance and win an electoral process in a decisive way, if it should take place.
Infiltrated social networks
The fight of everyone against everyone is being promoted within the opposition. Logs are thrown on the fire of political polarization. In addition, a sustained attack is maintained against the Civic Alliance and the Blue and White National Unity, the principal groups that emerged from the April Rebellion and that form part of the National Coalition.
In other words, there is a desire to suffocate “the Spirit of April”. That clear and decisive unity that was making a call to overthrow the dictatorship; and to transit to a process that would leave us with the result of a free, just and democratic country. A unity “above parties, ideological alignments, left, right or postures which exclude people,” as Enrique Sáenz wrote in August 2018.
Unfortunately, intellectuals, journalists, analysts, independent politicians and some “influencers” in social networks have taken the poisoned bait and are shooting at anything that moves. The bombardment of false information, coming from accounts of false profiles created in Twitter and Facebook for the purpose of causing division within the blue and white sector, has been intense.
It is undeniable that the digital strategy of the regime seeks to take advantage of the fears and desperation of a people beaten down by: the cruelty and persistent repression, the pain of the death of their loved ones, torture, imprisonment, exile, unemployment, salary reduction, hunger, economic crisis and the pandemic.
The regime stopped the popular struggle with the bullets and violence used by the police and paramilitaries, supported by intelligence services and agents infiltrated into the marches and the blue and white ranks. That was necessary to install the repression and the de facto police state. As justification, it promoted the narrative of a “failed coup attempt.” But in the social networks, Rosario Murillo and her team of communicators where defeated by the people.
Telcor trolls disguise themselves as blue and white
The information provided by the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI) of the Organization of American States (OAS), in order to document the crimes against humanity is a decisive and irrefutable example. Using social networks, the people, paraphrasing Phil Graham, wrote the first draft of current history.
Nevertheless, the regime has been working to revert that defeat. We almost no longer hear about her team of “trolls” in Telcor and the “mole” accounts have practically disappeared.
The strategy changed. After a possible mapping of people with “postures of exclusion” or “politically intolerant people” susceptible to disinformation, to the discourse of hate and conspiracy theories, blue and white accounts emerged with false profiles. They, after “taking the regime down a notch or two”, achieved a certain amount of credibility, to then promote disinformation and increase the polarization; to prevent the unity or consensus that might put at risk the dictatorship.
Some specialists say that we have passed from the information era to the disinformation era. We have been living in it for some time. Governments use lies, deceit and false news to consolidate themselves in power. Rosario Murillo is an expert in this, she has created an “Orwellian” language, an alternative reality for her and her followers. What is new now is that they are applying the old saying “divide and conquer” to the social networks.
The tools of Cambridge Analytics seek a cultural change, principally in how people perceive what is happening around them on a political and social level. That was the twist that Steve Bannon promoted. In the United States this means, among other things, promoting distrust toward immigrants, reducing the black vote and exacerbating white supremacy.
Dividing to prevent the consolidation of new leaders
In Nicaragua they seek to divide the blue and white people so that a unified opposition group is not established, or is not sufficiently strong enough to confront the dictatorship, in order to:
- Confuse the population so that they question whether they should participate or not in the elections;
- Create and feed the feeling of political impotence in the face of the repression;
- Exacerbate distrust, empowering the phenomenon of the Nicaraguan crab – those below pull down the person who tries to rise and do not let him be successful – thus they prevent an alternative leadership to Daniel Ortega from emerging.
To achieve this, it is necessary to promote the Sandinista/anti-sandinista dichotomy. Which has the added value of discrediting and neutralizing those who the dictatorship consider to be their fiercest adversaries: the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) and all the ex-sandinistas, including those who joined the protests of April 2018. It also sends a warning message to their sympathizers: “look, take notice, they hate Sandinism so much that they are not going to accept you if you abandon me.”
Something similar happens while taking the debate to the ideological field and what Norberto Bobbio calls the left-right dyad. Everything that might be “leftist” or “socialist” is bad. Therefore, only the right is acceptable and only the right can participate in politics. This reinforces the official argument of the coup and that the entire movement of the opposition is directed and controlled by the right.
Nevertheless, to promote the left-right division the “trolls” of Ortega need to not only attack the left, but also the right. That is why they discredit anyone who was Sandinista, Arnoldista, an official of a previous government, Somocista Guardsman, liberal or contra.
Not lowering the guard on the social networks
Since the students and youth from the barrios shook us out of our lethargy, apathy and cowardice in April 2018, diversity has been manifested among the people who rose up against the dictatorship. This includes different interpretations and images of the social reality; or about how to be and carry out opposition to a bloody dictatorship, which intellectuals who are in the opposition present to us as “intelligentsia”.
Here I am not referring to that type of political-social analysis. I am referring to what Christopher Wylie, one of the “whistle-blowers” of Cambridge Analytica has compared to going on a blind date. To people who lower their guard, who are not thinking, and believe that something is true if it is similar to their intuition about what might be true.
So, when we might feel like dancing with Ortega´s “trolls”, before sending out a “like”, “retweeting” or “sharing” all the negative that these false accounts present, let us use common sense. As recommended, analyze current events:
- Review the facts with an open mind
- Put simple assumptions (or hypotheses) to the test, and
- Follow the arguments to their conclusion
With or without Russian or Cuban support, the trolls of Ortega Murillo are going to continue active. The recent three Draconian laws promoted by the dictatorship show that they have not been able to achieve their purpose and are afraid. Like with the Covid-19 pandemic, being a member of the opposition implies not lowering the guard, much less with one of the principal weapons of resistance: the social networks.